Fooled by Randomness. On the Hidden Role of Chance in Business and Life

Randomness, luck, chance, uncertainty, probability, human errors, risk, and decision-making in a world we do not understand are inexhaustible in their complexity themes explored by successful trader, mathematician, and philosopher Nassim Taleb, preparing us for a worthy encounter face to face with challenges and unforeseen events of any kind. "Probability is not so much the calculation of odds when rolling dice, but the recognition of the lack of certainty in our knowledge and the development of methods to cope with our ignorance. Beyond textbooks and casinos, probability almost never presents itself in the form of a mathematical problem or a riddle for the mind. Mother Nature will not tell you how many pockets there are on the table for playing roulette, and her problems are not formulated in the style adopted in textbooks (in the real world, one must seek the problem, not the solution). The probabilistic thinking underlying this book suggests that if alternative outcomes had occurred, the world would be different." N.Taleb